New Silver Buyers Coming from Unexpected Places

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/mike-maharrey-and-dr-vieira-podcast-img.jpg" alt=”Mike Maharrey and Larry Reed” width=”450″ height=”180″ loading=”lazy” />

Mike Maharrey: Greetings. I’m Mike Maharrey, a reporter and analyst here at Money Metals, and I’m pleased to be joined today by Jordan Roy-Byrne. Jordan is one of the best technical analysts out there. He’s the author of the very recently published book, gold and Silver, the Greatest Bull Market has begun, and he is alSo, the editor and publisher of the Daily Gold Newsletter. How are you doing today, Jordan?

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Yeah, I’m great. Thank you So, much for having me, Mike.

Mike Maharrey: Well, I really appreciate it. I appreciate you taking the time out of your day to chat with me for a few minutes. So, I was perusing your X feed, and you have a pinned post that says, “Gold is very likely to correct and rest very soon, but the next leg up in 2026 is going to be insane.” And that was actually posted in April I believe. And indeed, Gold did hit a record high back in April, and it has been trading sideways ever since. So, at least the first part of that appears to be very accurate. But there are some folks out there that have kind of speculated that maybe the Gold Bulls have run out of a leg. Do you still see another insane leg up in 2026 and if so, why?

Jordan Roy-Byrne: I think it’s definitely possible technically, well, I should step back for a second. I studied history and with gold it’s had you go back to its cup and handle breakout in March of 2024. It’s basically the seventh major breakout that gold has had in its history. And what happens, and this is more So, with the breakouts to new all-time highs that are sustained, and this is the fourth one, but it tends to happen with all of these breakouts is gold breaks out, you get a big move higher and then it comes back and tests the 200-day moving average usually before another big move higher, another leg higher begins here. And now gold is still quite a ways above. Its 200-day that’s coming in at about 2954 right now. Gold of course is trading above 3,300, So, there’s a long way for that to go. There was one instance, I believe this was ‘09 or maybe early 2010, when gold broke above $1,000 and then it came back and tested the 150-day moving average before trending higher and eventually it tested the 200-day again.

But with respect to gold, when it breaks out to new all-time highs, it has a first big move and then it tends to have that correction. Most cases it test the 200 day, but it’s not like a Band-Aid doesn’t have to do that. But basically after that first pullback, that next leg higher, you tend to see acceleration to the upside. And I do think that that’s still possible. Gold’s consolidating, but it’s consolidating very bullishly, it’s going sideways, but it only came down to somewhere in the low 31 hundreds. So, now we’re three full months into this consolidation. And if you look at some of the biggest breakouts in its comparable history, I point to the breakout in 2005 and then the breakout in 1972, those in terms of time, one of them was four and a half months and the other was five months.

So, most of the price damage gets done initially and then the market can consolidate and go back and forth for a couple more months, but without significant price damage. So, if you think about that, this correction is right on queue, although it probably needs to continue for, I would think another month and a half to two months. And so, even if gold were to kind of break down here in the short term and go to $3,150 or so, it’s still in a larger bullish consolidation. So, the longer this consolidation continues, it’s setting up more fuel for that next leg. Higher gold made a huge move higher and it was way above all the long term moving averages. So, any market, when that happens, you’re going to see a rest in a digestion period. And finally, I’ll just say we’re tracking 1972 really closely for gold and also, for silver by the way, and gold doesn’t have that much history that we could point to.

But if you’re looking at, okay, when is the other point when gold broke out from a really long base? Well, basically you have 1972 and 2005, those are the only other breakouts from huge bases. 2005 gold wasn’t at an all-time high when that happened. So, that immediately points to 1972 and 1972 after gold’s first big move higher, it corrected 11 or 12% and then it went sideways four and a half months. I think gold has corrected 11% this time. So, it’s falling 1972 really closely. I mean it makes sense technically based on how it’s acting now versus the history. It didn’t quite test the 200-day then. I mean it came within two or 3% of it, the correction after the big breakout move. But it’s tracking 1972 really close, and I do these analog charts and if you look at how did silver perform during and after these breakouts, gold bait to do all-time highs, it’s tracking the 1972 case for silver like today pretty close. And that analog would argue that silver could, I think potentially reach 50 in the next three or four months and then it’ll consolidate for another three or four months after that, potentially break 50. So, all this history is very, very exciting, but it tells us that gold could go sideways here for two or three more months.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I can see that for sure. It’s funny you answered my second question. I was going to ask you about 1972 in that tracking, So, I appreciate you hitting on that point. And I’ve not been concerned, but I’ve heard some people out there, they think that as soon as they see it go down at all, I don’t know, do you have any sense of why people tend to be, especially here in the United States, they tend to be So, slow to jump on to gold and So, quick to jump off, do you have any idea what the psychology of that is? Can you speculate on that?

Jordan Roy-Byrne: I think it’s probably a lack of experience and a lack of conviction. Maybe I’m not a psychologist, but maybe most people, as you’re saying, they’re slow to catch on and they really hesitate. I mean, if it’s not going up, then they feel that, oh, well it’s not going up, So, why am I going to buy it? This is not going up. Then when it starts going up, there’s like, oh, well it’s gone up too much. If I buy now, it’ll go back down. So, I think it revolves around conviction. I know that as I’ve gotten older, I mean compared to 10, 20 years ago, more so, 20 years ago when gold made that ’05 to ‘06 breakout, I was always a little concerned. I knew that technically it was setting up for a huge breakout, but every time it went down a little bit, I was thinking, oh, well maybe it’s going to keep going back down. This breakout’s not going to happen. And so, I guess it’s probably a lack of experience in markets and as you age and have more experience, you understand how the market works and if the market’s broken out and it’s trending well, even if it’s really overbought trends, they tend to continue for a long time before they reverse and go in the other direction. So, I just put it out a lack of experience and then a lack of conviction.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I’ve seen that in my own life and my own kind of development of thinking. The older I get, you have more experience behind you. So, it’s easier to put things into a little bit broader context. I’ve talked to some folks, and I think this is a really good point you look at, especially when you’re talking about the interest rates and the trajectory of monetary policy, there’s a lot of folks that are out there in the industry now that have never known anything other than extremely low 0% interest rates. We were in that environment from 2008 all the way up until just a couple of years ago. And so, I think people have a harder time of thinking back to the eighties or the seventies, whereas I can remember the eighties and even vaguely the seventies. So, I think that’s a really good point. Maybe it is not such a dumb idea to listen to our elders, as my parents always told me when I was younger.

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Yeah, I mean when it comes to markets, I think that’s a fantastic point. And yeah, just a little segue with what you said. I’ve been talking a lot about how there’s really, really strong similarities to the mid-60s to early 80s period with the secular bear market of bonds, which I talked about in my book quite a bit based on my indicator of an 80-month moving average adjusted for inflation. So, total real return of bonds that rolled over starting in 1965. I mean it completely rolled over I think in 21 or 22. And so, yeah, this is only the second time We’ve been in a secular bear market in bonds since 1920. So, from 1920 to 2020, that was, it’s a 100-year period where you only lost money in bonds from the mid-60s to 1982. And so, their recency bias with bonds is so, heavy.

And another reason this is so important is you get stock market crashes when bonds are in a secular bull market, not a bear. So, if you go back to that period, 65 to 82, yeah, there was a 50% decline in the market from 73 to 74 and 68 to early 70. I think you got about a 37% there. But if you look at both those bear markets, they were completely different. I’m talking about bear markets and stocks, whereas they both ended, the worst part of those bear markets was the very end, the first year or 15 months, the market was down 15 or 20%, no crash, nothing terrible, and then they just kind of crashed at the end for a couple months and that was it. Normally the crash is in the middle, but again, stepping back, all the major crashes in markets ’29, ‘87, 2008, 2000, they all happened when bonds were in a secular bull.

And why is that? Because there was an easy alternative where people could go to knowing that their money would be safe and they would make money. So, when you remove that, and again, that wasn’t in place from ‘65 to ‘82, where bonds are not that surefire alternative stocks, they can hold up a little bit better or at least they don’t crash, or the bear market acts differently. Yeah, so, I see a lot of people predicting, ‘Oh, we’re going to have 2008 or 1929,’ and it’s like, guys, you’re completely missing it. I mean, this is heavy recency bias. These guys are just completely missing the differences. We’re in an inflationary time. Bonds are in a secular bear. Gold’s broken out new all-time high silver potentially could do the same in 2026, copper broke out from a super bullish 13 year or 15 year base commodity prices, if you look at spot commodity prices, those are at all-time highs. If you look at all these things, they’re telling you, we were in a new inflationary period, and again, stock markets in the economy, they act a lot different.

This is not 1929 or 2008. Again, the government, all the debt has essentially, for lack of a better description, been transferred to the government. And when that happens, there’s inflation, your money loses purchasing power. And yes, guys like you and me, I mean, I don’t know when money metal started, but a lot of gold people like myself and others, yes, we were talking about this 20 years ago and 10 years ago, but years ago now, it’s like there’s an imminent risk because of how the markets are setting up, as I just mentioned, how they’re acting and how they’re performing and all these breakouts, they just happened in the last year or even the last year or two. I mean, so, we’re not talking here like eight years from now, and then maybe we’re closer to the end of the inflationary period or not, but these can last well over a decade. We are just getting into this and there’s a lot more road ahead here for this period. So, I know I’ve kind of gone off on a major tangent, but I think as far as history, I think a lot of people are missing that and what it tells us about where our markets are at present.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Well, no, that’s a fantastic tangent because I really feel like you very much play into my, I guess bias because I’ve always felt like it’s important for us to look at the longer term. We’re so wrapped up as a society in whatever the last headline that comes over our feet on X that I think a lot of people fail to put it into that longer term perspective. And there’s so much to be learned from that. Now, I’ll be honest, I’ve only been really involved in the precious metal space since 2015 or so, so, I’m relatively new to this. I’m trying to lean on folks like you and others who have this wisdom and this broader picture to help understand what’s going on. And I think that’s So, important. It’s so lacking. You never hear anybody on MSNBC or Fox Business talking about the things that you just mentioned. So, I think it’s extremely important, and I wish people like you had a bigger voice out there in the mainstream world because I think this is so incredibly important.

It’s interesting you’re mentioning moving into an inflationary period because I’m listening to the president and I dunno, Kevin Warsh, former fed governor, who I think is one of the contenders to be the next Fed chair. He’s saying, inflation’s fine. We’ve got it under control. We need more rate cuts. So, obviously there’s some kind of disconnect there. I don’t know what I’m missing, but…

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Well, I would just say, sounds like the last administration. “Inflation is not a problem. Inflation’s coming down.” So, yeah, they’re not telling us anything that’s surprising. At the end of the day, they’ll all end up saying the same thing, and if there’s a big problem, they’ll just blame it on the last guy. Yeah. But that’s why watching the market is important. I don’t mean just watching the market every day, but understanding what’s going on with the long-term technicals as you’re saying. And again, gold is broken out. Last year broke out of a Super Bowl or 13 year cup and handle pattern. Copper broke out from, I think it was a 15 year base, kind of a similar looking pattern.

And again, bonds have been a disaster. And what does that tell you? I mean, certainly there will be countertrend moves, but the big picture, when you break out of a more than a decade long base in markets, that’s something that that’s going to carry on at least for another decade. That’s not something that’s going to completely reverse itself in two or three years. And so, when you look at markets and understand what’s happening, markets are more powerful than politicians. And so, maybe the CPI, or maybe it’ll come down for a little bit for a little while, but just look at where markets are, look at what they’re doing with the deficit. It’s going to continue to get bigger it looks like. And at the same time how they want interest rates to be cut. I mean, this is a recipe for some serious inflation over the coming years. And again, markets lead. So, that’s why again, gold and copper have already broken out to do all-time highs. Silver will probably be there sometime next year. And again, bonds are losing money in bonds and people are still moving their money out of bonds. And so, that’s more powerful than what they’re telling you on the news or what politicians are saying.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. I wrote an article the other day just looking at some of the dynamics in the silver market, and of course we’ve had a nice little breakout and you mentioned cup and handle. We also can see that cup and handle set up secularly from with silver going back to 1980s. And so, it looks like that is kind of set up in that technical aspect as well. And when I was writing it, I mentioned the fact that we’re seeing these technical setups and with silver, again, a lot of people think, okay, we had this runup and it’s shot at shot and maybe we’re over and done with. But I think if you look at those technical charts and you look at some of these other dynamics, there’s plenty of room to run up. Do you pay a lot of attention to the gold-silver ratio?

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Not a whole lot. I follow the stocks a lot more. And so, with respect to that, I’m more of the mind that just try and buy good companies that at the same time they’ll be leveraged. And I do follow it a little bit, but I think, oh, well, I’m going to sell my golden trade for silver. My attitude is more, unless it’s at a super obvious point, just buy both and own both, and maybe you can switch around a little bit. So, just that ratio to me, I don’t follow it a whole lot. I think looking at it like there’s been so many false signals, and I’m just looking at it now. You can go back a couple months and broke above 95. Okay, that’s a huge breakout. Now it could go to 120, then it stopped, and now it’s falling. Now it hit 85, and now it’s rebounding again. But if I zoom out even more, maybe this is still in a long-term uptrend, So, I know I’m just rambling on here about the gold-silver ratio, but I guess I don’t, I mean, it sounds ridiculous for someone in my position to say, but I don’t follow it a whole lot, honestly.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, no, that’s fair. I mean, we all look at different dynamics, and I think that’s why it’s important to kind of get people to put their heads together because there are so many different things that you can kind of look at. I don’t pay as much attention to the mining sector and the mining stocks. I know that for gold mining stocks in particular, they were kind of lagging throughout the early parts of the gold rally. What are you seeing with the gold and silver stocks right now? How is that market looking?

It’s looking fantastic. They’re in the sweet spot of some really excellent fundamentals because energy prices, or at least oil prices and other energy prices, I mean they’re still low, even though most other commodity prices broken out to do all-time highs. So, that’s a big positive for the miners. And over time, over long periods of time, the inflation adjusted prices of gold and silver are actually excellent indicators for those stocks. I remember I used to not care at all about the inflation adjusted price of gold, but then I made this discovery when I was doing research for my book. This chart looks really similar to the chart of the Barron’s Gold Mining Index. And it makes sense because gold miners, they’re not going to follow the gold price. They’re following the gold price minus costs or gold price divided by costs. And the CPI is a really good proxy for that.

You can probably use the PPI as well. And if you look at that, that had a monster breakout, I think last year, gold against the CPI and silver against the CPI actually just broke out this month or last month. The CPI data is delayed, but it broke out of a 13 year-long base, I think. So, miners are in a real sweet spot now because the prices of gold and silver are rising in real terms, they’re really outperforming inflation. But down the line, when you’re in a specific cycle, not the whole secular cycle, but a specific cycle, when you get past the midway point and you’re kind of in the last third or so, the miners do not do as well because inflation is really embedded. Oil is moving, natural gas is moving. You have other cemented steel cost inflation is a major problem, and that eats into the margins of these companies.

So, that is going to be an issue at some point. I don’t know, is it going to be 18 months from now or 24 or 12 months? I’m not really sure, but my guess would be somewhere in that timeframe, but we’re not there yet. Again, we’re in the real sweet spot here. We’re gold and silver. They’re really crushing in real terms. And when that happens, that’s really good for the stocks. But the stocks are cyclical. These are cyclical businesses. So, at some point they’re not going to do as well. And I’m not of the mind that, okay, I’m just going to completely dump all my stocks and go into gold and silver. But for a trader, that could make sense at some point. And stepping back, if you look at the two secular bull markets in gold and silver, you did have a big bear market in the middle.

So, before we get to that bear market leading up to that, what I’m saying is in the lead up to that, at some point, the miners will stop giving you leverage and the metals will perform a lot better. And one other point about the miners is this completely flip flopped in the early two thousands with ETFs. So, gold and silver ETFs came about, I think in ‘04, ‘05. So, before then, it was really difficult for someone as a portfolio manager or an investor to hold gold or silver in their portfolio. They couldn’t do it. What was the way to do it? They had to buy the stocks. But after 04-05, you have all these new ETFs, gold and silver became financialized. And so, portfolio managers and investors, retail investors, they can buy it in their brokerage account instead of buying the stocks. So, that also, hurt the stock. So, I don’t hear many people talking about that, but that was a massive blow to the mining sector. They traded at much higher valuations pre ’04 and ‘05.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that makes sense. I’d never really thought of that before. It’s interesting because if you look at the kind of development of ETFs, they’re really growing in popularity right now in Asia. The Chinese gold ETFs really took off late last year and into this year. And then I saw an article the other day that Silver ETFs had the biggest influx of silver through the first six months of 2025. It was more than what they had the entirety of 2024. So, you’re seeing that kind of investment interest, and as you say, it makes sense because they can include it in a portfolio. It’s a lot easier than trying to figure out how to get and store physical metal, although I would argue that you probably should have some physical metal as well, but that’s a different conversation. So, let me get you out with this. Let folks know where they can avail themselves of your wisdom and the information you have. Where can they find your book and how can they find your newsletter and all of the things that you’re putting out there that would be valuable to our listeners.

Jordan Roy-Byrne: They could get the book for free at the DailyGold.com. They could get my premium newsletter. There’s a link there on my website, and I post all my content on Twitter. They can follow me there @TheDailyGold. And I also, have a YouTube channel at TheDailyGold where I do a Friday weekly recap every Friday and other videos on most Mondays, sometimes on Wednesdays. So, I put out a lot of free content. So, I would encourage people to check out the free content.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, definitely pick up that book, folks. I mean, you can’t beat the price, and there’s a lot of really, really good information in there. And again, I think it’s So, important for folks to understand this bigger picture, this historical context, these broader trends that are out there that So, often get lost in the noise of the day-to-day headlines. And appreciate the fact, Jordan, that you’re out there doing that work and putting it out there, So, at least it’s not lost in the forest, So, to speak.

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Well, I appreciate you recognizing my work in the book, Mike. I really appreciate that.

Mike Maharrey: Well, I will let you go with that then. Thank you So, much for taking a little bit of time and spending it with me this afternoon, and we’ll definitely get you on again as things proceed in the future. But until then, I wish you all the best and again, thank you.

Jordan Roy-Byrne: Thank you, Mike.