Some decisions are hard. Some decisions are easy.
In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, Mike Maharrey talks about one of each.
Should the Fed cut or raise interest rates? That’s a hard decision, and the June CPI didn’t give much clarity. Mike breaks down the report and examines various ways to interpret it.
Should you have silver? That decision seems like a no-brainer given the fundamental and technical dynamics, as Mike explains.
Mike opens the show with a hypothetical scenario.
“Imagine a guy is coming at you with a knife. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? You might intuitively say it’s bad news. But what if there is a guy behind him carrying a big roast that he’s about to carve up and serve to you? That’s good news, right? See, the same scenario could be good or bad depending on how you look at it. You need to understand the context of the situation.”
Mike says this observation applies to the recent CPI report.
“It showed signs of price inflation creeping higher in June. That’s bad news for everybody hoping for interest rate cuts. The uptick in prices could drive the Fed to hold rates higher for a little longer. However, there were enough dovish points in the data to support those pushing for looser monetary policy, too. So, how do you read it? I guess that’s up to you.”
Mike digs into the CPI data, showing that there are data points that indicate increasing inflationary pressure, but others that could be read more optimistically. He notes how one interprets the data likely depends on their political bent.
The financial media emphasized that prices rose and drew a connection to tariffs. However, Mike points out that while tariffs can certainly raise prices (price inflation), they don’t cause inflation when you properly define terms.
“Only one thing raises the general price level — all prices — in an economy. That is, an expansion of money and credit.”
Mike emphasizes that while the Fed tightened monetary policy enough to slow price inflation, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/15/the-fed-hasnt-done-enough-to-beat-price-inflation-002991" rel=”noreferrer”>it didn’t do enough to slay the inflation dragon. This supports the case for leaving rates higher.
“On the other side of the coin, President Trump and those pushing for rate cuts can point to the core CPI data and plausibly argue that price inflation remains muted. While there are signs that price inflation is heating up, it remains cool compared to the numbers were were seeing a year ago. … A higher interest rate environment will eventually crack the debt-riddled economy and pop the bubbles. The economy needs its easy money drug. However, a few good CPI reports notwithstanding, inflation is far from dead.”
It’s https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/01/12/trump-vs-powell-and-a-catch-22-003748" rel=”noreferrer”>a classic Catch-22, and Mike says the CPI report won’t make the decision any easier.
“But I’ll tell you one decision that seems pretty easy, at least in my opinion. Get more silver.”
Mike notes that silver touched $39 an ounce on Monday.
“But even at that, I can make a good case that it is still underpriced. And I can make it using several dynamics.”
Mike goes on to cover the still historically wide https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075" rel=”noreferrer”>gold-silver ratio, then supply and demand dynamics, and the “cup and handle” technical pattern.
“Taken together, the technicals and the supply and demand dynamics tell us that despite the recent rally, silver is still on sale and there is plenty of life left in the bull’s legs.”
Mike notes that silver demand has primarily come from the industrial sector, with investors on the sidelines. But that’s started to shift.
“We’re also starting to see investors coming to the table. Last year, record industrial demand led to a fourth straight market supply deficit. However, investment demand was pretty tepid. Not anymore. Through the first half of 2025, inflows of silver into ETFs eclipsed the total for the entirety of 2024, reflecting a surge of silver investment demand.”
There’s also been increasing demand for physical investment silver in Asia and Europe. However, U.S. investors haven’t hopped on the bandwagon.
Mike sums up the current state of the silver market.
“Based on both the technicals and the supply and demand dynamics, silver remains underpriced with significant upside. If U.S. investors hop on the bandwagon, it could drive another significant leg up.”
That makes the decisions of whether or not to buy silver pretty simple. Mike says that makes this the perfect time to call 800-800-1865 and talk to a Money Metals precious metals specialist.
Articles Mentioned in the Show
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/14/silvers-bull-market-has-officially-begun-004196" rel=”noreferrer”>Silver’s Bull Market Has Officially Begun
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/10/silver-upleg-imminent-004186" rel=”noreferrer”>Silver Upleg Imminent
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