Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up don’t miss another incredible interview with Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial. Greg tells us why he sees the U.S. bond market facing a tsunami of new debt issuance that will push yields higher, leading to a secular bear market in bonds and how this could spark an outflow of capital that benefits gold. Greg shares how uncertainty around trade and tariff policy has resulted in lots of gyrations in all markets, and a how long-term, patient approach is the way to go for investors.
He also tells us which precious metal he is favoring the most and one he’s expecting to see breakout in the near term. So be sure to stick around for Mike Maharrey’s interview with one of our very favorite guests, Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, Bank of America seems to have turned into a bit of a precious metals bull, announcing in recent days it has raised its one-year gold price target to $4,000 and silver to $40.
Last October, the big bank had only projected $3,000 for gold in 2025.
BofA analysts said trade-induced geopolitical uncertainty would continue to support precious metals prices, with growing concern about the U.S. government’s fiscal situation and a declining U.S. dollar possibly catalyzing the next leg up.
Treasury yields spiked this month after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating, indicating investors are becoming more wary of holding U.S. debt.
Bank of America analysts do feel gold prices will consolidate here for a few months before moving higher, and they say investment demand will still need to increase and jewelry demand will need to remain firm.
As for silver, the bank called it “one of the better investments” thanks to both industrial and investment demand.
Industrial demand for silver set a record in 2024, driving the silver market to its fourth straight structural deficit. This demand is expected to remain robust in 2025, despite some headwinds from tariff worries and supply chain disruptions.
As for this week’s market action, gold is off 2.0% now to trade at $3,303. The yellow metal has spent most of the last two months trading in a range between $3,250 and $3,350, and we find ourselves right in the middle of that range here now, with just a few hours left in another week of trading.
Turning to silver, it is off 1.6% since last Friday’s close to check in at $33.17 an ounce. The stubborn gold to silver ratio can’t seem to shake off the near 100 to 1 mark that we’ve seen since early April, as we figure to get another weekly close at just about that number yet again.
Platinum is finally cooling off a bit this week to come in at $1,070. The industrial metal is down 3.9% this week after advancing double-digits last week. And finally, palladium is off 3.1% and currently trades at $996 as of this Friday morning recording.
Turning to Money Metals’ ongoing advocacy for sound money legislation across the nation, the State of Florida has just passed its second sound money bill in the past three years.
Governor Ron DeSantis signed H 999 this week, paving the way for the elimination of the Sunshine State’s remaining sales taxes on purchases of gold and silver coins, bars, and rounds.
Taxation on precious metals is the greatest impediment to citizens adopting their own personal gold standard.
As of today, though, 46 states have either partially or fully exempted gold and silver purchases from sales taxes — and 14 states have exempted gold and silver sales from income tax.
Money Metals is highly responsible for all the progress seen at the state level, having dedicated something like 20,000 hours of staff time and many other resources to these sound money projects in recent years.
America’s 54-year experiment in a purely fiat currency system has gone poorly. Without backing of gold or silver, the Federal Reserve note “dollar” has continuously declined in purchasing power. The nation has faced a series of Fed-created booms caused by interest-rate manipulation, followed by busts as well as an explosive growth in government spending and debt.
When savers, wage earners, and investors seek ways to protect their savings from the ravages of inflation, they often choose precious metals over fiat currency because precious metals have preserved purchasing power over time.
Removing the friction of taxation when buying or selling gold and silver remains a very high priority for Money Metals — and investing in this important policy area is something we feel we owe to our Money Metals customers… and it’s something we can do to help our fellow citizens and our nation.
Well now, for more on the recent action in metals prices and a whole lot more, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.
Mike Maharrey: Greetings. I’m Mike Maharrey, a reporter and analyst here at Money Metals, and I’m delighted to once again be joined by Greg Weldon. Greg is a longtime fixture in the world of investing. He has worn many hats from floor trader to institutional futures broker, and today he produces excellent, independent global macro market research for financial institutions and sophisticated investors. How are you doing today, Greg?
Greg Weldon: Well, in your lingo, I’d say I have multiple hat tricks.
Mike Maharrey: Yes.
Greg Weldon: Yeah, a lot of hats thrown on the ice, that’s for sure. I’ve tried to wear ’em all.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, well, a little hockey lingo for those who may not be aware. Well, it’s really great to have you on again, it’s always delightful to get your insights. I want to start off just looking at the gold market and we had a record high of $3,500 last month, and we’ve seen a bit of a correction in some consolidation over the last several weeks, and a lot of it seems to be driven by the whole tariff situation. So every time you get good news, good news, I’m using air quotes about the tariffs. We get a selloff in gold stocks rebound, and in fact, as we’re speaking today, that’s exactly what’s happening. But there’s so much uncertainty regardless. It’s like every day it changes. And I would say uncertainty is kind of like the only given when it comes to Donald Trump and the way he approaches policy. So how in the world does somebody who’s invested in commodities in particular the precious metals, how do they play this? What would you recommend for people to do as we try to wade through this uncharted water?
Greg Weldon: Well, it’s a really well-posed question because it gives me a variety of ways to answer it, all of which are kind of pertinent. And the first one would be, yeah, there’s a ton of uncertainty and you have a ton of these whipsaw moves that are based on news that people want it to be one way or the other. In this case today, it was news from the Bank of Japan, from the Ministry of Finance that they had done a survey of their people that buy JGBs, Japanese government bonds, and they had a very tough auction. They have a 40-year auction coming up tomorrow. So there’s a lot in terms of the fiscal expansion there. Inflation, they’re keeping rates very low, still stimulative to a huge degree. I mean, their base rate on a real basis is minus 3%. That’s really stimulative. They’re still buying securities, even though that has begun to roll over a little bit, which all of a sudden caused a problem.
Greg Weldon: It’s like the BOJ stops buying bonds and all of a sudden you’re facing these really fast rising yields. Life insurance companies are sitting on all kinds of unrealized losses. Not that that means they have to sell, but that means they’re probably not going to buy as much. All the buyers are kind of drying up. We see that in the US too. All of a sudden there’s a potential for a debt dynamic to influence bonds into a mini crisis. And when the MOF comes out this morning and says, we’ve surveyed market participants to ask them what they think the best balance on the yield curve would be for our debt issuance, and the market goes crazy, like voila, there’s a solution to the global debt problem. I’m just scratch my head. So golds down 80 bucks and the dollars play back up. So yeah, there’s a lot of that kind of uncertainty.
Having said that, you kind of nailed on the head. If you’re a long-term investor, there is absolute certainty in the way that this is going to play out. It’s only a question of how we get there and what are the catalysts along the way to cause the things that are going to happen to happen, they’re going to happen any way you slice it and that is the fed will revert to printing more money because we’re in the debt black hole. I’ve pitched this whole story where you have between household debt and public debt and public debt, 80% of it is owned by the public. I mean, come on man, this is like a disaster waiting to happen. When you look at it that way, people talk about foreign holders, the debt which are sellers now too.
That means the public has to buy more of this debt, and I hate to use the P word, but at some point it becomes applicable. But the degree to which the certainty is that the only way out. Now, the way we have chosen, the only way to keep this thing floating to keep servicing the debt is to create more. So in that context, the Fed will go back to what they’ve done before. And this time around when I sent you the piece that I did over the weekend for my clients, especially on the bond market crisis where you look at the numbers 9.3 trillion of debt maturing in the next 12 months. You got 1.4 trillion of public borrowing requirements within the budget that need to be done in the next five months. They backloaded all of it. They didn’t do barely any of it in the first seven months, this kind of thing, let alone the fed is 50 billion a month, less of a buyer.
You have an issue and you’re pressing 5%. And the Fed, they thought they were going to be cutting rates four times. Now it’s maybe once, but at the end of the day, inflation be damned because they will protect the consumer. They have to protect growth. We’ve had this conversation, they will get to that point and especially if it’s a bond market crisis, they’ll come in and buy more bonds. They’ll be QE so fast, they’ll make your head spin. So that’s the certainty. And that certainty means the certainty of the longer term, lower dollar and lower gold and silver, and even some of the crypto now, which all of a sudden has this really tight correlation with the bond market. I mean really tight. So that’s really interesting. You get above 5% and 30 year bond, you get above a hundred thousand in Bitcoin. Bam. Simple as that. So we’ll see if that continues.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it’s really interesting. I looked over the charts that you released over the weekend, some really interesting stuff in there, and I’ve been focusing a lot on the debt from kind of the other side, the demand side of the curve, and you’ve kind of focused in on the supply, just the extreme amount of bond issuance that is on the horizon.
Greg Weldon: It’s a tsunami of paper that is rolling right at the US bond market.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, and it’s interesting too because I think even as of now, they’re not issuing nearly as much as they’re going to because we’re up against the debt ceiling. I don’t think a lot of people realize that’s not been resolved. When they do, they’re going to have to wait out there. And it’ll be interesting to see what yields do when they have to go. I think after the last debt ceiling crisis, the debt went up, I can’t remember the exact numbers, but it was in the hundreds of billions of dollars within a matter of six or eight weeks.
Greg Weldon: That debt ceiling, by the way, which was 2011. You had 2008-09 crisis. Then you had the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the debt ceiling crisis here in the us. But I think this is to throw in a point of reference and almost a point of order, it’s like, okay, can we stop even having this stupid ass discussion about the debt ceiling? We know there’s no debt ceiling. Come on. That’s the most ludicrous oxymoron in the history of politics. Throw that whole thing out the window. There’s no debt ceiling. He keeps going up. So there’s no ceiling when you can basically lift it on air. So anyway, I would like to say that.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, yeah, that’s a really good point. I wrote an article not a while back, and actually I went back through and I wish I could remember the exact number off the top of my head, but I think it was in the upper seventies, the number of times that they actually raised either raised or suspended the debt ceiling. So I mean, you’re right. Why make the, but it’s politics, right? I mean, that’s what politicians do. I’m trying to think of how I want to take this because I think this debt issue is really important and I don’t feel like a lot of people really grasp the significance of it because whenever I talk about it, I kind get the eye rolls and Oh, we’ve been talking about this for years and nothing bad has happened and what’s kind of the end game here in your view? I mean, is it just money printing and inflation? I mean, is that the end game?
Greg Weldon: It’s the same end game that it was back in 2006 when I wrote my book saying this is where we’re going to go. The next step would be monetization of government debt. And it was considered monetary heresy to say that. I mean, honestly, I was on Squawk Box with the guys on Squawk Box and Joe Kernan called me a nut job for saying that the Fed would actually print money to buy bonds. How ludicrous that was, and that gold would skyrocket on that and that I was a nut for saying of course, 18 months later, that’s exactly what happened. So this will continue. It’s a trend that will continue and I think the best way to look at it is to look at the 40 50, really 40 to 50 year trend in the T-bond yield. When you go back to Volcker, when you go back to the last time you had high inflation, Powell is a Volker disciple.
He’s told us this. And I will say I’m upset with Jerome Powell for continuing to use the phrase inflation expectations remain well anchored, okay, it’s a lie. He knows it’s a lie drop that one. Okay. But I have a lot of respect for pile two because he has done exactly what he told us in the manifesto. That was 11 white papers to published by the Fed in 2018 when he took control and the new monetary paradigm, let inflation get well as far above the eight year average as it wants to get and then we can bring it back down. Now, certainly the pandemic intensified that, but it didn’t happen because of the pandemic. We were already headed there. So again, it’s one of those things, we don’t know what the catalyst may be. It’s always going to be something like that that sparks this. All of a sudden these things are above ground and everyone can see them. And you talk about now what would be one of those things is the consumer. You and I have had this discussion before, I’ve used the phrase consumer cocoon would be in 2025. One of the big things for 2025, you see it now, credit card debt now is down four months in a row
And revolving credit down five months in a row. The only two times that that’s ever happened before on a rolling 12 month basis is in dollar terms, was in the pandemic in 2008, 2009, or really 2009, 2010 after the crash. And then you look at consumer expectations, university of Michigan, it’s the lowest since 1979 and 80 when a double bottom right before Volcker defeated inflation. And you think back, well, Volcker defeated inflation and POW wants to defeat inflation with these high interest rates. The problem is, and you listen to the words from Powell over the last two or three years, they’re verbatim for what Volcker used to say in the 78, 79 and so on when he’s beating up inflation that we don’t want a credit crunch is the last thing we want. Both Powell and Yellen had stated at some point they don’t think a small decline in consumer credit would be a bad thing.
And I immediately said, you let that inflation, you let that genie out of the bottle with consumer credit, you have a consumer cocoon, this will really be bad. And it’s already happening now because the consumer is tapped out and you say the bank guys will get on TV and tell you that everything is good because the credit card receipts are running hot and it’s like they’re using it to pay the bills. And now the delinquency rate, the only other time it was higher was 2010. The only time it’s 13%, 90 days seriously delinquent on credit cards. That’s almost a record high. And then you talk about the consumer expectations, like I said, being as low as it was in 79, and you see that not only in the Michigan survey, also in the New York Fed household survey. I mean the same thing, expecting to be better off or worse off financially 12 months from now, it’s heavily skewed towards worse off and it’s never recovered from the pandemic and now it’s eroding again. Consumers are screaming that they’re hurting and that to the degree to which now what we saw last month because credit card use was down, what else happened? Savings dip by 35 billion in a single month and credit card debt right now, savings amounts to 65% of credit card debt. That’s a problem. And the only other time it was like that, 2007.
So, all these things, the charts are hard to argue against, and that’s why I like these kinds of charts, the macro charts. They create a visual that is visceral, guttural, and it makes sense when you connect the dots, you understand where this is going.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I think that’s an important perspective in this day and age too. I think you and I are a little bit older. I’m not going to say we’re old because we’re not old, but we’re older than a lot of people that are out there in the marketplace now. And I think there’s a little bit of a wider view that we can bring to the table that I think gets lost in the 32nd soundbite world we live in where we’re reacting to the last thing that was posted on X as opposed to really looking at these long-term trends. I’m curious your take on this. I interviewed Jim Grant a few weeks ago and he’s one of my favorites. I love kind of his persona, but he has been saying he thinks that we’re on the path or in the early stages of a secular bear market in bonds, and he’s really just, he’ll tell you, he’s just looking at the previous cycles that we have these long 45, 50 year cycles in bonds where it’s hot and cold and it feels like we’re entering into this next phase which will be lower demand, higher supply of bonds and higher yields.
Do you agree with that take?
Greg Weldon: One hundred percent! I mean that’s exactly what I said, and that goes hand in hand with the charts I sent you too. When you look at the, like I was saying before, the monthly chart going back 50 years of the T-bond yield, it’s a 40 year downtrend. I have it marked every set of the way, what happened until 2008, and that’s when debt went above GDP and then all of a sudden, so you say me and you are older, and we’ve seen this, I’ve seen this entire bubble blow up and I have seen every machination of it. I’ve seen every response to it. And yes, people have been talking about a bomb blow up for a long time, no doubt about it, but we have not been in a position we’re in now where the secular trend has changed because we’re in a debt black hole and once you’re in, you can’t get out.
If you try whatever propulsion you can generate, you’re going to try, what is that? That’s burning dollars, that’s propulsion to try and get out of this thing. And it’s an upside down situation because when you consider again a household debt and the public debt, which is owned by the public, which is ridiculous to begin with, it’s 55 trillion, it’s 186% of GDP, which in essence means a dollar 86 to create a dollar in growth and you need the growth to service the debt. So yes, secular bear market, and I would tell you Jim Grant is as good as anyone out there in history with bonds and especially the long-term cycles. And I actually used to write for his website at one point when I first started my own business, I got a side gig writing for Jim. Interest rate observer, great. I mean anyone would avail themselves to have the interest rate observer on their desk.
I could say that for sure. But yeah, I agree a hundred percent and I think that the technicals are there, the fundamentals are clear, and I think when you see it all in kind of the projections and the sequence of where we’ve come from from the last 40 years, it almost seems obvious. And I always worry about things being too obvious. Am I seeing this as so clear? No one’s seeing it. Am I wrong? And I think people are seeing it. And I’ll tell you this, just to add one more thing to a long answer already, people around here, you’re in Florida, right? So on the West coast,
So, I’m on the East coast and I’m near Palm Beach and I have a lot of people way richer than me, way more successful than I’m all over the place up down here. But a lot of them know what I do, and I do get questioned when I’m out having a dinner or at a bar or something. What do you think this that? The other thing I can tell you, the people that are self-made, big ass rich people that build businesses and are rock stars in their own right are worried they can’t put their finger on it. They can’t really say it literally to a degree that they can understand it even to talk about it, but they’re worried. And if they’re worried about the credibility of the dollar and the bond market and us as the major detonation to the world, and then we go out there and I’m all for liberty and freedom. So I’m definitely Trump over Kamala. On the other hand, going out there and bullying all the people we owe money to is not necessarily the best way to go about things. I would’ve maybe handled it differently, brought Mexico and Canada into the fold first, then presenting more United Front would’ve been a lot better.
But nonetheless, this is where we’re at and we needed something to happen, but it doesn’t matter because at the end of the day we still have the Twin Towers. And I say that with all due respect, the Twin Towers, you remember what that was? A bunch of deficits, trade deficits, they’re both records. Both the goods trade deficits, a hundred billion, it’s unheard of man in a single month. We’re just sending money overseas. So yeah, something need to be done there too, but it’s too little too late and there’s only one path forward.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Do you think a little bit, given the context that we’re talking about here broadly, that the daily fixation on what’s the latest trade deal? What’s the latest tariff that’s been implemented or put off for 90 days or whatever, do you think that’s a little bit of smoke and mirrors?
Greg Weldon: Yes and no. I mean it is because it’s not going to really change much of the near to medium term this year, next year trend. It’s not going to stimulate growth necessarily. It’s not going to bring back manufacturing us doesn’t happen that quickly if it does happen at all. I think what ends up happening is still the unintended consequences as it were, where you have the Asian nations a EN meeting with China and the EU now. I mean, I always wondered, how’s that side of the world going to bring the EU in. Because it seems that that was one that wouldn’t fold to OPEC, Russia and China as a new axis of power, throw India and South Africa in there
And to whatever extent North America and rather North Korea, South Korea has its own little dynamic. I mean, there’s so much going on there. It’s kind of mind blowing how this has somewhat backfired into bringing all these nations together. I mean, the move towards a bricks currency has died down in the public eye. But I’ll tell you what, I absolutely, I don’t know this for a fact, but I absolutely would guarantee there are talks now that have been intensified, accelerated because of the way they’re pushing around and now they’re talking about taking more Russian financial institutions off the swift system. I mean, man, come on. I mean, it’s just like we’re pushing them into this de dollarization, which is real. At the same time, the dollar’s going to get whacked because of our debt and our inability to, we’re going to have to pay higher interest rates to attract capital. So, it’s crazy.
Mike Maharrey: There was an interesting article in the Financial Times just within the last few days, kind of chronicling the selloff of US equities, particularly in Europe because that’s kind of their focus of that particular publication. But it was interesting because they’re alluding to exactly what you’re talking about, this kind of incentivization that we have politically for folks to kind of shun the dollar a little bit just to protect themselves. And I wrote about that article today and I kind of said at the end, maybe as individuals we need to be thinking the same thing because it’s not getting any better. Here’s a question though. Sokk a large segment of our listeners are interested in gold and silver, and the conventional wisdom is when you have higher interest rates, that tends to be a headwind for the price of gold and silver. So, just taking that by itself, you might think, okay, well secular bear market and bonds higher yields, that’s going to be bad for gold and silver. Yet on the other hand, we’re talking about a situation where we might see the Federal Reserve … I think we will see the Federal Reserve go back to quantitative easing inflationary environment. Gold and silver are an inflation hedge. How does a precious metal investor navigate this situation in your view?
Greg Weldon: That’s a good question and I think really the first part of the question has an alternative answer that higher yields here may not be so bad for gold if it’s an outflow of capital. Now, the bond market, which could be enormous and that some of this could induce foreign holders that are not official. When I talk about all of a sudden the life insurance companies are in Japan are talking about their unrealized losses. Well, again, they’re not going to dump that stuff. They’ll hold to maturity and the balance sheet, whatever, but to me it’s not going to buy it and go buy somewhere else. That’s kind of the same thing I think here too. And that’s when I get back to the public’s ownership of debt here, that is the debt that owe ourselves. I mean, it’s kind of insane to whatever extent. I believe that that is a thing that also applies to the stock market as well, because I think maybe the stock market doesn’t do so well, at least in the first phase of higher rates. A lot of it comes down to the dollar because rate differentials, having widened, especially against Europe, have been bullish for the dollar. Many parts of this last dollar phase going all the way back to 2011 has been the yield advantage that we got when we started tightening, especially earlier in this whole cycle. So now it’s kind of working around. And I think that one of the interesting things is to kind of see where you are in terms of the Euro and even the British pound and a couple of the other currencies versus where the dollar is and even the yen for crying out loud because they’re a creditor nation. And when the yield differential, yeah, it’s nice, but are you potentially losing more than that in the bond on the underlying bond investment? I mean, I think now that’s a real risk, and I think the credibility of bond market is about to become into question, which means the credibility of the dollar comes into question, and that means higher yields that will cause outflow, some of which will go to gold.
And I think, and that’s one of the reasons I’m kind of bulling some of the crypto too, where you haven’t had kind of this kind of reason also that they’re making moves now into Africa and places like Nigeria all of a sudden too. So to me, that’s always been one of these things where I want to own both. And if something like Bitcoin or usually gold people aren’t Bitcoin people, but if you think about people in Nigeria, the Nira has gotten annihilated for the last 10 years. Do you have foreign energy companies, particularly out of Europe and Germany in particular, come in, take the natural gas, they live high off the hog off of that, and the people in the towns even where they pump out the natural gas, they’re still in poverty. So it’s one of these things where they’re not going to run to the local pawn shop.
: They’re not going to get gold and bury it in the desert. I mean, not to be disrespectful, but this is not something they have availability of where if you have a phone and now this company’s going to go in there and open this up to crypto availability, holy mackerel, think about the places Pakistan, what is it, 250 million people in Pakistan? I mean a place like Turkey, you got 80 million people, so you’re a place like Nigeria. So you’re talking about that kind of thing, becoming a bigger picture also, that ties in with this whole demise of the dollar and the US bond. This is no longer a safe haven. What else do we really have? I do like the euro here, which pains me. I never like the Euro. So there’s reasons why I do like the Euro, which is kind of awkward for me, but there’s some really good currencies we like.
The Polish zlotys – The Polish economy has been booming ever since. You thought you might have some peace. And then when you look at where their central bank took rates really high because they were around the forefront of the inflation of gas, their inflation went way up, and when they were able to cut rates on the backend, it stimulated a revival in their economy that’s been really bullish for the currency. Same in the Czech. Sweden’s been a good currency too about the breakout. So not only when you look at the dollar, when you start to look at the number of currencies that are breaking out on a long-term basis, Peruvian Saul was one. They just had really good economic data that came out this morning. And the Saul literally is on a version of a major breakout. And one the reasons too, some of these currencies look good is they’re close ties with either China or Russia, especially in trade. So a place like Peru, and then you start talking silver and you say, Americans can’t get silver, it’s all going to China. Oh my god. The possibilities are endless. I mean there’s be great opportunities at the same time.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it’s interesting you mentioned Poland, number one central bank gold buyer last year, and I believe also in the first quarter.
Greg Weldon: That’s the thing. You take all these countries that want to be BRICS nations. I mean in case like Brazil, they got tens of billions of US treasuries. They got to sell, sell it. They need to have the physical gold in and in the country to participate in this. So take the dollar proceeds and go buy gold. We’re going to see more of that too.
So, the bottom line for the long-term investor is you’re in do nothing. I mean, seriously for me, it’s much more about trying to time the market and leverage it to produce higher returns.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, yeah, exactly. You mentioned silver, and I feel like I’ve asked you this. I know I’ve asked you this question before, but everybody always asks me this question, so I’m going to pass it along to you. Gold silver ratio, still over 100 to one. And I had a comment on one of our posts on Facebook the other day, and he was still waiting for that silver breakout kind of being mocking. But there are some legitimate people out there that will speculate that maybe these higher gold silver ratios are the norm Now you don’t think so?
Greg Weldon: Well, I would say yes and no again, I mean honestly, yes. And I think the question to ask now is the question about silver become rhetorical. So it’s like it’s the same answer. We have no answer. To me, it actually just simplify it. And two different ways. Number one, silver’s performance given up until just recently, the strength of the dollar has been phenomenal, frankly. I mean, it’s held above 30 bucks. It’s been raised 30 down to maybe 27, 50 times and can’t really get through 35, 35, 50 at all, right? But according to that range, when the dollar has mostly appreciated, I would say is a good relative performance, number one. Number two, I would say that the issue is you look at stuff like unbalanced volume and open interest in both gold and silver. They’re kind of similar because this is not a speculative buying binge and gold. It’s not a US investor rotation into gold. This is central bank buying, and they’re not buying silver because silver’s not part of the bricks. Silver’s not a tier one asset, all these different reasons. So I think there’s a lot of reasons why it is where it is that are 100% justified.
The question, what does spark silver? And I think that is now the break in the dollar, because when you look at the dollar, it is broken, the trend line, it goes all the way back to 2011. That pattern is an A, B, C, perfect 50% retracement of the entire bear market in the dollar from 1983, which include the 1985 plaza Accord where they agreed to devalue the dollar all the way down to the 2008, 2011 double bottom. So the technicals are a thing of beauty and the setup monetarily, the setup debt wise, the setup, political, everything is set up for the dollar to crack wide open here, and when that happens, silver will go.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I agree with you completely, and I think you make a really good point too. I think we’re a little bit jaded on silver because we’ve seen this big run up in gold so fast. And yet as you point out, silver hasn’t done that bad. I mean, I’m sitting on a bunch of silver, I bought it like 12, 11, 12 bucks. So…
Greg Weldon: It’s done better than palladium and platinum, which I’m now bullish on too. We actually turned bullish on platinum and palladium last week. So if you want to ask myself the next question, the PGMs look really good to me. You have situation of platinum, are you going to have what I think is the fourth, third or fourth year of deficit supply demand basis annualized? And it’s pretty deep. You don’t have it. And if the projections are met this year, you’ll be left at the end of the year with only three months of consumption in aboveground stocks of platinum. Platinum could be explosive here. So that’s something I got my eye on as well, that again, we just did a special not only on the PGMs, which I’d be happy to send your people, but also the macro special on the bond market, man, the charts when you look at the debt and then the interest expense on the debt, now that it’s got all these things and the consumer, all of that’s in there and the charts are compelling. All humility aside,
Mike Maharrey: I’m glad you brought up the PGMs. I actually wrote an article the other day asking the question and then kind of answering it is platinum in particular poised for a breakout? And I think you’re right. I think there’s a lot of signs. Well, where can folks go if they want to avail themselves to the information? You sent me those charts and I’m telling folks that are listening right now, you definitely want to look at ’em because as Greg said earlier, that visual is really, really helpful to drive a lot of this home. So it was where can folks go to get that?
Greg Weldon: And just to kind of finalize that point, there was an article on Bloomberg recently about this tax deal that was passed the house just now when Trump won the big bad bill or whatever it was. So one of the on Bloomberg, one of the stories that says this will increase the US debt by 3 billion over the next several years. And I stopped and said, wait a minute, 3 billion. It’s like I could throw numbers at you all day. It doesn’t really mean anything until you see it in a visual that shows you what this is relative to where we’ve been. And so trillion dollars, we’re talking about trillions now, man, it’s not, again, this is why have things changed? Why has this not been a factor? Because 2008 changed everything and the pandemic pushed us in. Now we’re in and we can’t get out.
So, information on this, we do daily research with specific recommendations and foreign exchange, fixed income, global stock indexes, precious industrial metals, energy, any agriculture commodities which pay attention to the ag food price inflation, right? EU deforestation laws and all this kind of stuff. I mean, there’s all kinds of weather. The long-term dynamic around the science of the planet, very bullish for food commodities. So that’s something you want to avail yourself of if you want to keep pace with the debasement of the person power of paper money. So that’s what we try and do. So the global macro strategy report is the daily product. We also manage money. It’s a very high minimum investments credit. Investors only don’t really talk much about it, but we are accepting new investors. And I think the people that do what I do, commodity trading advisors, especially in the futures market, in a regulated futures market, right?
Whether no money is commingled, you keep money in your own name, everything is so transparent and aboveboard, it’s not even funny. It has to be these days. But taking advantage of being able to long and short, every currency, every bond market, all these food commodities, the precious metals, copper is still a big story, still going to be one of those big plays down the road. Even something like natural gas too. And now even Ripple is now a new futures contract too. So to even get into the crypto and hey, if these things are going to go up, I want to participate. So to me it’s like take advantage because you only have a handful of moves every year that are going to be the big moneymaking moves, and I want to participate in any of those markets. So being able to watch everything is huge.
So, for our money management clients, that’s where we manage money. And certainly you could get any of the reports, the PGM report or the big Debt us bond and kind of comparing it to gold as the new dollar and Bitcoin is the new bond. That’s kind of the whole theme of the piece. So I kind of like that. You can email me simple. Greg Weldon, G-R-E-G-W-E-L-D-O-N, at Weldononline.com, one word, Weldononline.com, or check me out on Twitter at Weldon Live, my podcast, which is Money Markets and New Age Investing, just did one. All this same stuff you can find at Money Podcast on Twitter, or check me out on YouTube, Gregory Weldon.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah, do it. Greg is a great resource and always enjoy having you on the show. Appreciate your wisdom and insights. It doesn’t hurt that I tend to agree with pretty much everything you say. In all seriousness, I really do appreciate you taking the time and I’m sure we’ll have you back on in the near future. You become a favorite partner on your show.
Greg Weldon: You do a great job, so I’m always happy to contribute.
Mike Maharrey: Alrighty, well you have a great afternoon, and we’ll talk to you again soon. Okay.
Greg Weldon: Take care.
Good stuff as always from Mr. Weldon. Love getting his perspective and look forward to hearing from him again in the coming months.
Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And don’t miss our second weekly podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo, hosted by Mike Maharrey and available each Wednesday. To check out any of our audio programs just go to https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts">MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on your favorite podcast platform of choice. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.
Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/">Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.