Thinking Big Picture: Three Long-Term Trends Investors Should Consider

Information comes at us at a dizzying pace. We live in a 30-second news cycle, and the latest headline tends to drive markets.

Are investors missing the big picture in this deluge of data and headlines?

In this episode of the Money Metals’ Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey argues that many are, and he encourages more big-picture thinking to put the latest headlines into perspective. To kickstart the process, he covers three long-term trends that he thinks investors should pay attention to.

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Mike opens the show quoting Ferris Bueller.

“Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”

Mike notes that the movie came out in 1986.

“I feel like his observation is even more poignant today as we’re buried under an avalanche of information that floods over us every waking moment!”

Mike reminisces about the advent of CNN Headline News and the advent of the 24-hour news cycle.

“It seemed fast back then, but in the internet era, a 24-hour news cycle seems antiquated and quaint. Now we have the 30-second news cycle brought to you by X and all of the other social media platforms. Yesterday morning, I had the April CPI data within minutes of its release. Today, we often know things are happening within moments. Everybody has a camera, and with the internet, information can spread around the world in a matter of minutes.”

This has ramifications.

“I don’t think people realize how much this has changed the way we react to information. We operate on such fast timeframes that I think a lot of people have lost their ability to look at the big picture.”

Mike says this seems especially true in the world of investing.

“Everybody is hyper-focused on the last data point, the last headline, the last word uttered by Jerome Powell, or Donald Trump, or whomever. There is very little strategic planning. Everything was caused by something that happened 30 seconds ago. Of course, that’s not true. Sure, it’s important to keep up with the latest news or the most recent data release. But you always need to slow down and put it into context.”

Mike uses the recent announcement that the U.S. and China had made progress in trade talks as an example.

“With this news, stocks took off. Gold sold off – dropping more than $100 at one point. And by Tuesday, people were canceling the much-feared recession. There was a big headline on Bloomberg declaring ‘JPMorgan drops U.S. recession call after US-China trade truce.’ JPMorgan wasn’t alone. All of a sudden, all of the tariff worry is over, and everything is great. Is it though?”

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Mike emphasizes that this news needs to be put in a broader context.

“Do you mean to tell me that the ONLY reason there are recession concerns is due to tariffs? Was it smart to sell gold on Monday? I mean, if you’re just considering tariffs, I guess maybe? But aren’t there maybe some other reasons to keep holding gold? Yes. This is why Asian investors are stocking up on gold right now, even as Americans seem more interested in selling and taking some quick profits. If you listen to the show regularly, you know this. There are other underlying factors that make a recession not only likely, but I would argue it’s inevitable.”

Mike points out that generally, it takes a long time for the impacts of economic and monetary policy to play out.

“As an investor, you have to factor in these big-picture things, and I think a lot of people have a really hard time doing that.”

Mike covers three long-term trends he thinks investors should factor into their decision-making as they try to make sense of the latest headlines and data points.

Debt
Inflation
De-dollarization

Of course, there are other factors as well.

“There are all kinds of malinvestments in the economy incentivized by easy money that will have to be cleaned out at some point. There’s the falling demand for U.S. Treasuries even as government spending keeps going up. There is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty. All of these things factor into the economy.”

Mike argues that investors are tying their hands if they fail to consider the bigger picture and focus exclusively on minutia.

“It’s like one of those paintings made from dots. If you get too close, all you see are dots. You have to back up to get the full perspective. You can’t just make decisions based on the data you saw this morning, or the fact that you like this president, or whatever other narrow range of info you’re using.”

Mike wraps the show up with a call to action, encouraging listeners to call 800-800-1865 and talk to a Money Metals precious metals specialist.